· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Tiszaújváros vs Kisvárda II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Tiszaújváros and 1.24 for Kisvárda II, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Kisvárda II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tiszaújváros home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kisvárda II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Tiszaújváros
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisvárda II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karancslapujtő · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Debrecen II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 3-2 (W)
Kisvárda II
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cigand SE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszaújváros · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2025-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2025-05-18T09:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2024-11-03T12:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-0 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2024-05-12T09:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2023-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 2-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2023-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 3-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2022-08-14T09:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 1-1 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2022-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 5-0 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2021-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · Tiszaújváros 3-4 Kisvárda II (NB III - Northeast)
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | DEAC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 4 | Kisvárda II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Debrecen II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Gödöllő | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Eger | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.