Tiszaújváros vs Mátészalka Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Tiszaújváros and 1.25 for Mátészalka, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Tiszaújváros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tiszaújváros home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Mátészalka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tiszaújváros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Tiszaújváros and 1.25 for Mátészalka, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tiszaújváros win41%

Draw26%

Mátészalka win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–09.9%
0–18.8%
2–18.7%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Tiszaújváros

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisvárda II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karancslapujtő · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Debrecen II · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 3-2 (W)

Mátészalka

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eger · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozarmisleny FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs DEAC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Füzesabony · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	13	11	0	2	31	33
2	Cigand SE	13	10	2	1	25	32
3	DEAC	13	8	2	3	14	26
4	Debrecen II	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Gödöllő	13	7	1	5	8	22
6	Kisvárda II	13	5	6	2	6	21
7	Mátészalka	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Diósgyőr II	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Tiszaújváros	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Füzesabony	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Eger	13	5	2	6	-12	17
12	Hajdúnánás	13	4	1	8	-17	13
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	13	4	0	9	-11	12
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Tarpa	13	3	0	10	-20	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.