Edward Seaga Sports Complex · Analysis updated 09:05 UTC
Tivoli Gardens vs Cavalier Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Tivoli Gardens and 1.20 for Cavalier, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Tivoli Gardens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tivoli Gardens win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tivoli Gardens home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cavalier away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tivoli Gardens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Tivoli Gardens and 1.20 for Cavalier, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Tivoli Gardens
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tru-Juice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapelton · 1-1 (D)
Cavalier
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Tivoli Gardens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T22:05:00.000Z · A vs Molynes United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Montego Bay United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnett Gardens · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 9 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tivoli Gardens win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.