Edward Seaga Sports Complex · Analysis updated 19:02 UTC
Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Tivoli Gardens and 0.83 for Chapelton, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Tivoli Gardens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tivoli Gardens home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chapelton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tivoli Gardens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 32% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Tivoli Gardens and 0.83 for Chapelton, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 1–016.1%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Tivoli Gardens
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tru-Juice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapelton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 1-1 (D)
Chapelton
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnett Gardens · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Waterhouse · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Spanish Town Police · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmore United · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.