· Analysis updated 18:23 UTC
Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Tivoli Gardens and 0.63 for Dunbeholden, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Tivoli Gardens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tivoli Gardens win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tivoli Gardens home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunbeholden away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tivoli Gardens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 16% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Tivoli Gardens and 0.63 for Dunbeholden, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 3–011.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.3%
Recent form
Tivoli Gardens
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunbeholden · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tru-Juice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapelton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 1-1 (D)
Dunbeholden
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Waterhouse · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-23T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Harbour View · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tivoli Gardens win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.