Estadio Tlahuicole · Referee F. Cruz Garatachea · Analysis updated 10:17 UTC
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Tlaxcala and 1.78 for Correcaminos Uat, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Tlaxcala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tlaxcala win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tlaxcala home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Correcaminos Uat away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tlaxcala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for Tlaxcala and 1.78 for Correcaminos Uat, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Tlaxcala
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Piratas · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monarcas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapatío · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 3-1 (W)
Correcaminos Uat
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs CA La Paz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cancún · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Piratas · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tlaxcala win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.