City Football Station · Referee T. Nakai · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Tochigi City vs Vegalta Sendai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Tochigi City and 1.79 for Vegalta Sendai, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Vegalta Sendai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vegalta Sendai win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tochigi City home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vegalta Sendai away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vegalta Sendai to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 27% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Tochigi City and 1.79 for Vegalta Sendai, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Tochigi City
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokushima Vortis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Vegalta Sendai
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tochigi City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Consadole Sapporo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fukushima United · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vegalta Sendai win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.