Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Tochigi SC and 1.53 for Fukushima United, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Tochigi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tochigi SC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fukushima United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tochigi SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Tochigi SC and 1.53 for Fukushima United, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tochigi SC win42%

Draw23%

Fukushima United win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–18.7%
1–27.9%
1–06.8%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Tochigi SC

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)

Fukushima United

2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	11	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	11	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	10	26
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	10	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	8	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	2	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	11	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	7	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	1	20
10	Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	-10	15
14	Fukushima United	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Matsumoto Yamaga	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Biwako Shiga	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	13	4	1	8	-10	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.