Tochigi SC vs Kitakyushu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Tochigi SC and 1.20 for Kitakyushu, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Tochigi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tochigi SC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kitakyushu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tochigi SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Tochigi SC and 1.20 for Kitakyushu, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tochigi SC win43%

Draw26%

Kitakyushu win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.2%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.5%

Recent form

Tochigi SC

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)

Kitakyushu

2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagamihara · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainare Tottori · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Iwaki · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	12	9	2	1	12	29
2	Ehime FC	12	8	2	2	13	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	12	7	2	3	8	23
4	Nara Club	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	FC Gifu	12	7	1	4	12	22
6	Sagamihara	12	6	3	3	7	21
7	Osaka	12	5	5	2	9	20
8	Roasso Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	7	20
9	Parceiro Nagano	12	5	2	5	0	17
10	FC Ryukyu	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Kanazawa	12	4	2	6	0	14
12	Matsumoto Yamaga	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Biwako Shiga	12	4	2	6	-3	14
14	Gainare Tottori	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Tochigi SC	12	3	4	5	-4	13
16	Kitakyushu	12	3	4	5	-5	13
17	Fukushima United	12	3	2	7	-5	11
18	Thespakusatsu Gunma	12	3	1	8	-11	10
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Kochi United	12	1	2	9	-23	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.