Kanseki Stadium Tochigi · Analysis updated 14:54 UTC
Tochigi SC vs Kochi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Tochigi SC and 0.65 for Kochi United, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Tochigi SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tochigi SC win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tochigi SC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kochi United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tochigi SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 22% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Tochigi SC and 0.65 for Kochi United, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 2–014.0%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Tochigi SC
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)
Kochi United
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Renofa Yamaguchi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Osaka · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Osaka | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Biwako Shiga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Ryukyu | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tochigi SC win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.