Kanseki Stadium Tochigi · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tochigi SC and 1.37 for Montedio Yamagata, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Montedio Yamagata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tochigi SC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montedio Yamagata away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Tochigi SC
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Parceiro Nagano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montedio Yamagata · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 2-0 (W)
Montedio Yamagata
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Oita Trinita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T05:03:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 2-2 Montedio Yamagata (J2/J3 League)
- 2026-02-15T05:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 1-2 Montedio Yamagata (J2/J3 League)
- 2024-07-06T10:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 0-1 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2024-03-03T05:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 1-3 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2023-10-08T05:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 0-2 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2023-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 2-1 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2022-07-02T10:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 2-0 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2022-05-04T07:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 1-2 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2021-10-31T05:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 1-2 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
- 2021-03-21T05:00:00.000Z · Tochigi SC 2-1 Montedio Yamagata (J2 League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.