Todesfelde vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Todesfelde and 2.78 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

VfB Oldenburg win

51.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 2.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Todesfelde home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Oldenburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 30% / 18% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Todesfelde and 2.78 for VfB Oldenburg, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Todesfelde win30%

Draw18%

VfB Oldenburg win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals72%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

2–26.5%
1–26.0%
2–36.0%
1–35.6%
2–14.7%

Recent form

Todesfelde

2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Lübeck · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Phönix Lübeck · 0-9 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 2-5 (L)

VfB Oldenburg

2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	15	11	1	3	26	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	10	3	2	15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	10	1	4	26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	10	1	3	22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	14	8	4	2	24	28
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	14	5	5	4	-1	20
8	Kickers Emden	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	4	5	6	-9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	4	3	7	-14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	St. Pauli II	14	4	1	9	-2	13
15	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	3	4	6	-8	13
16	Hamburger SV II	14	4	1	9	-12	13
17	Todesfelde	15	3	3	9	-25	12
18	Bremer SV	14	3	2	9	-14	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.