· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
TOGB vs Poortugaal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for TOGB and 1.58 for Poortugaal, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives TOGB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TOGB home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Poortugaal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TOGB to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for TOGB and 1.58 for Poortugaal, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
TOGB
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Noordwijk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Groene Ster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs UDI '19 · 1-2 (L)
Poortugaal
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dongen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs GOES · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · TOGB 1-3 Poortugaal (Derde Divisie)
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACV | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 1 | Noordwijk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | VV Scherpenzeel | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Harkemase Boys | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Excelsior Maassluis | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 4 | Excelsior '31 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 4 | Rijnvogels | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | UDI '19 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | TEC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Dongen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Sportlust '46 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Zwaluwen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 8 | Purmersteijn | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Poortugaal | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Sparta Nijkerk | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | GOES | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 14 |
| 10 | Hoogeveen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gemert | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Blauw Geel | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Hercules | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Roosendaal | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Staphorst | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | TOGB | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Eemdijk | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Groene Ster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | UNA | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Dovo | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Vvsb | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Hollandia | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 4 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | SVZW | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
| 18 | EVV | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.