Yeni Erbaa Stadyumu · Analysis updated 22:10 UTC
Tokat Bld Plevnespor vs Orduspor 1967 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Tokat Bld Plevnespor and 1.83 for Orduspor 1967, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Orduspor 1967 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Orduspor 1967 win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tokat Bld Plevnespor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orduspor 1967 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orduspor 1967 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Tokat Bld Plevnespor and 1.83 for Orduspor 1967, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.6%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Düzcespor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Orduspor · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Giresunspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pazarspor · 0-0 (D)
Orduspor 1967
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kartal Bulvarspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatsa Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Orduspor 1967 win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.