· Analysis updated 18:16 UTC
Tokat Bld Plevnespor vs Orduspor 1967 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Tokat Bld Plevnespor and 1.19 for Orduspor 1967, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Tokat Bld Plevnespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tokat Bld Plevnespor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orduspor 1967 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tokat Bld Plevnespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Tokat Bld Plevnespor and 1.19 for Orduspor 1967, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Düzcespor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Orduspor · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-03-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Giresunspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pazarspor · 0-0 (D)
Orduspor 1967
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Amasyaspor 1968 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kartal Bulvarspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatsa Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Galata | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Orduspor 1967 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | İnkılapspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Düzcespor | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Beykoz Anadolu | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.