Toktogul vs OshMU Aldier Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Toktogul and 1.38 for OshMU Aldier, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Toktogul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Toktogul win

48.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toktogul home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OshMU Aldier away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toktogul to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Toktogul and 1.38 for OshMU Aldier, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Toktogul win49%

Draw23%

OshMU Aldier win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.4%
1–07.4%
1–27.0%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Toktogul

2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Asia Talas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Talant · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kara-Balta · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs OshMU Aldier · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asiagoal · 3-2 (W)

OshMU Aldier

2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bars · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordoi Bishkek · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muras United · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Toktogul · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Abdish-Ata · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bars	27	18	4	5	36	58
2	Alga	27	16	8	3	26	56
3	Muras United	26	15	8	3	29	53
4	Asia Talas	26	15	7	4	20	52
5	Ozgon	25	16	3	6	22	51
6	Alay	27	11	8	8	0	41
7	Neftchi	27	11	3	13	-6	36
8	Talant	26	8	9	9	7	33
9	Bishkek City	26	8	9	9	0	33
10	Toktogul	26	9	4	13	-10	31
11	Dordoi Bishkek	26	8	5	13	0	29
12	Ilbirs	25	6	10	9	-14	28
13	OshMU Aldier	26	7	7	12	-15	28
14	Asiagoal	26	4	9	13	-15	21
15	Abdish-Ata	26	3	6	17	-30	15
16	Kara-Balta	26	1	6	19	-50	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toktogul win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.