Tokushima Vortis vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tokushima Vortis and 1.10 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Tokushima Vortis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tokushima Vortis home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tokushima Vortis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Tokushima Vortis and 1.10 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tokushima Vortis win40%

Draw28%

Tegevajaro Miyazaki win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.9%
0–110.5%
0–09.5%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Tokushima Vortis

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

J2 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	13	8	3	2	11	27
2	Albirex Niigata	13	8	2	3	-2	26
3	Kataller Toyama	13	6	4	3	11	22
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	9	22
5	Shonan Bellmare	13	5	7	1	3	22
6	Omiya Ardija	13	5	6	2	7	21
7	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Oita Trinita	13	4	7	2	7	19
9	Iwaki	13	5	2	6	1	17
10	Sagan Tosu	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Tokushima Vortis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
12	Consadole Sapporo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
13	Blaublitz Akita	13	4	4	5	0	16
14	Jubilo Iwata	13	4	4	5	-1	16
15	Fujieda MYFC	13	3	6	4	1	15
16	Vanraure Hachinohe	13	4	2	7	-12	14
17	Montedio Yamagata	13	4	1	8	-2	13
18	Tochigi City	13	3	3	7	-2	12
19	Imabari	13	3	2	8	-11	11
20	Ventforet Kofu	13	3	2	8	-17	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.