Ajinomoto Stadium · Referee Yoshimi Yamashita · Analysis updated 08:51 UTC
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.03 for Avispa Fukuoka, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Avispa Fukuoka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tokyo Verdy home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avispa Fukuoka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 62.6% vs market 57.0%, edge +5.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.0% | 62.6% | 1.60 | +5.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.5% | 61.6% | 1.62 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.0% | 38.4% | 2.60 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.6% | 31.7% | 3.15 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.1% | 1.43 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.4% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.0% | 68.3% | 1.46 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.0% | 37.4% | 2.67 | -5.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tokyo Verdy
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)
Avispa Fukuoka
- 2026-10-24T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-24T06:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)
- 2026-01-20T02:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 3-4 Avispa Fukuoka (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-08T05:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)
- 2025-05-31T05:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)
- 2024-07-20T10:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)
- 2024-04-28T05:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League)
- 2020-11-25T09:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka (J2 League)
- 2020-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka (J2 League)
- 2019-11-02T04:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 0-2 Avispa Fukuoka (J2 League)
- 2019-05-11T06:00:00.000Z · Tokyo Verdy 3-2 Avispa Fukuoka (J2 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.