Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Tokyo Verdy and 2.58 for Kashima, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Kashima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kashima win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 2.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tokyo Verdy home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kashima away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 18% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 2.58 for Kashima, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tokyo Verdy win24%

Draw18%

Kashima win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.9%
1–36.8%
2–26.6%
1–16.2%
2–35.7%

Recent form

Tokyo Verdy

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Kashima

2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle Jets · 7-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	7	0	2	7	21
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	6	2	1	16	20
3	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	12	20
4	FC Tokyo	9	6	2	1	9	20
5	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	5	19
6	Kashima	9	5	1	3	3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	4	3	2	4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	9	3	4	2	3	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	0	13
10	Shimizu S-pulse	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Urawa	9	4	0	5	-5	12
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	3	3	3	-5	12
13	Mito Hollyhock	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	V-varen Nagasaki	9	2	3	4	-5	9
15	Nagoya Grampus	9	3	0	6	-6	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	-2	7
18	Gamba Osaka	9	1	3	5	-8	6
19	JEF United Chiba	9	1	2	6	-11	5
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	0	4	5	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kashima win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.