Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.30 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Nagoya Grampus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tokyo Verdy home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nagoya Grampus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nagoya Grampus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 1.30 for Nagoya Grampus, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tokyo Verdy win31%

Draw28%

Nagoya Grampus win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.9%
1–09.9%
0–09.1%
1–28.5%

Recent form

Tokyo Verdy

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Nagoya Grampus

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.