Toledo vs Almansa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Toledo and 1.05 for Almansa, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Toledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Toledo win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toledo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almansa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toledo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Toledo and 1.05 for Almansa, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Toledo win53%

Draw24%

Almansa win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–010.9%
2–19.7%
2–09.2%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Toledo

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 0-1 (L)

Almansa

2022-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 3-0 (W)
2022-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 1-1 (D)
2022-04-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 1-0 (W)
2022-03-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hogar Alcarreño · 3-2 (W)
2022-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2020-03-08T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 1-0 Almansa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2019-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · Toledo 5-0 Almansa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toledo win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.