Toledo vs Marchamalo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Toledo and 1.38 for Marchamalo, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Toledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Toledo win

62.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.52 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toledo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marchamalo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Toledo win62%

Draw18%

Marchamalo win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
3–17.4%
1–17.1%
2–06.4%
2–26.1%

Recent form

Toledo

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 0-1 (L)

Marchamalo

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-07T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 2-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2025-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · Toledo 3-1 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 1-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-12-21T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 2-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2024-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 0-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Toledo 4-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2023-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Toledo 1-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2022-12-11T11:00:00.000Z · Toledo 0-0 Marchamalo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
2022-02-20T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 2-0 Marchamalo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)
2021-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Toledo 3-2 Marchamalo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toledo win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.