· Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Tolmin vs Adria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Tolmin and 1.50 for Adria, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Tolmin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tolmin win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tolmin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Adria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tolmin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Tolmin and 1.50 for Adria, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Tolmin
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Žiri · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Škofja Loka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IB 1975 Ljubljana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Šencur · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dob · 1-1 (D)
Adria
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipava · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs IB 1975 Ljubljana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Litija · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Šobec Lesce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zidgrad Idrija · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izola | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 30 |
| 2 | Zidgrad Idrija | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Dob | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Litija | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Šencur | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Tolmin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Rudar Trbovlje | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 13 |
| 8 | Škofja Loka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Adria | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Žiri | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | IB 1975 Ljubljana | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Šobec Lesce | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Vipava | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 7 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tolmin win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.