Toluca U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Toluca U21 and 0.97 for Club Leon U21, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Toluca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Toluca U21 win

65.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.21 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toluca U21 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Leon U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Toluca U21 and 0.97 for Club Leon U21, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Toluca U21 win65%

Draw19%

Club Leon U21 win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

35%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.1%
2–19.9%
1–09.2%
1–18.9%
3–07.5%

Recent form

Toluca U21

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 3-2 (W)

Club Leon U21

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Queretaro U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX U21 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Toluca U21	14	13	1	0	24	40
2	Club Leon U21	14	11	0	3	7	33
3	Club America U21	14	8	0	6	4	24
4	Puebla U21	14	7	2	5	4	23
5	Guadalajara Chivas U21	14	7	0	7	-3	21
6	Atl. San Luis U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
7	Atlante U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
8	Necaxa U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Monterrey U21	13	6	1	6	5	19
11	UNAM Pumas U21	14	6	1	7	0	19
12	Santos Laguna U21	13	6	1	6	-1	19
13	Juarez U21	14	6	1	7	-3	19
14	Cruz Azul U21	14	6	1	7	-4	19
15	Atlas U21	14	4	1	9	-2	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	14	4	1	9	-7	13
17	Pachuca U21	14	4	0	10	-6	12
18	Queretaro U21	13	3	0	10	-5	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toluca U21 win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.