· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Toluca U21 vs Monterrey U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.71 expected goals for Toluca U21 and 1.09 for Monterrey U21, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Toluca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Toluca U21 win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
2.71 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca U21 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monterrey U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.71 goals for Toluca U21 and 1.09 for Monterrey U21, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.4%
- 1–16.6%
Recent form
Toluca U21
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 3-2 (W)
Monterrey U21
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Leon U21 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca U21 win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.