Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Toluca U21 and 0.73 for Necaxa U21, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Toluca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Toluca U21 win

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Toluca U21 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Necaxa U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Toluca U21 and 0.73 for Necaxa U21, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Toluca U21 win70%

Draw19%

Necaxa U21 win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–013.0%
1–012.2%
2–19.5%
3–09.2%
1–18.9%

Recent form

Toluca U21

2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul U21 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 2-0 (W)

Necaxa U21

2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla U21 · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX U21 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Toluca U21	12	11	1	0	16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	10	1	1	11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	7	0	5	1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	12	6	2	4	4	20
5	Club America U21	12	6	1	5	3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	6	1	5	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	6	0	6	-4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	6	0	6	-4	18
9	Puebla U21	12	5	2	5	2	17
10	Monterrey U21	11	5	1	5	4	16
11	Cruz Azul U21	12	5	1	6	1	16
12	UNAM Pumas U21	12	5	1	6	0	16
13	Santos Laguna U21	12	5	1	6	-2	16
14	Atlante U21	12	5	0	7	-7	15
15	Atlas U21	12	4	1	7	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	3	1	8	-8	10
17	Pachuca U21	12	3	0	9	-8	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	2	0	9	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toluca U21 win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.