Estadio Nemesio Diez · Referee Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Toluca and 1.65 for Atletico San Luis, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toluca win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico San Luis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Toluca and 1.65 for Atletico San Luis, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Toluca
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
Atletico San Luis
- 2026-10-24T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.