Estadio Nemesio Diez · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Toluca vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Toluca and 1.63 for Club Tijuana, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Toluca win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Toluca and 1.63 for Club Tijuana, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Toluca
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T03:10:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.