Estadio Nemesio Diez · Referee Abraham de Jesus Quirarte Contreras, Mexico · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Toluca and 0.91 for FC Juarez, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toluca win
73.4% probability
Expected goals
2.59 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Juarez away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–08.7%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.06 | 87.6% | 89.0% | 1.12 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 32.2% | 3.11 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.28 | 73.1% | 73.4% | 1.36 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 8.50 | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.09 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.90 | 15.9% | 15.6% | 6.41 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 45.3% | 44.8% | 2.23 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 67.8% | 1.47 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.08 | 85.9% | 84.4% | 1.18 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Toluca
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)
FC Juarez
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2026-03-08T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-30T01:05:00.000Z · Toluca 0-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-27T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca 2-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-12T03:00:00.000Z · Toluca 2-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-22T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2024-07-14T01:10:00.000Z · Toluca 3-2 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-09T03:10:00.000Z · Toluca 1-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-16T18:00:00.000Z · Toluca 2-4 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2023-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Toluca 1-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.