· Referee Iván Barton, El Salvador · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Toluca and 0.78 for Monterrey, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toluca win
65.9% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monterrey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Toluca and 0.78 for Monterrey, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Toluca
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)
Monterrey
- 2026-10-11T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Leagues Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Leon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Club America | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Austin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Charlotte | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Juarez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota United FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Orlando City SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Nashville SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter Miami | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 23 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Union | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 27 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Atlas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Necaxa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Atlante FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 32 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 33 | Club Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 34 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 35 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Puebla | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.