· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Toluca W vs Guadalajara W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Toluca W and 1.86 for Guadalajara W, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Guadalajara W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Toluca W and 1.86 for Guadalajara W, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.5%
Recent form
Toluca W
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs León W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Atlante W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Juárez W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético San Luis W · 4-1 (W)
Guadalajara W
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Juárez W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:06:00.000Z · A vs Tijuana W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T02:06:00.000Z · A vs Atlas W · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 2 | América W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 28 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Juárez W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | León W | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlas W | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -42 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.