· Referee F. Portillo · Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Toluca W vs Tigres UANL W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Toluca W and 1.65 for Tigres UANL W, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Tigres UANL W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL W win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Toluca W
- 2026-10-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 2-7 (L)
Tigres UANL W
- 2026-09-28T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Atlético San Luis W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs América W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T00:06:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Pachuca W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 2-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-05-01T03:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 2-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2026-01-22T00:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 1-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-07-14T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 1-1 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-01-27T01:06:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-5 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-6 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-02-09T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-7 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-08-18T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 1-3 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-01-31T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-2 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2022-11-01T01:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-5 Tigres UANL W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL W win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.