· Referee Y. Guzman · Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Toluca W vs Tijuana W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Toluca W and 0.80 for Tijuana W, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Toluca W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toluca W win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Toluca W home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tijuana W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Toluca W
- 2026-10-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Pachuca W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL W · 2-7 (L)
Tijuana W
- 2026-09-27T01:06:00.000Z · A vs Juárez W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:06:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:06:00.000Z · H vs Pachuca W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:45:00.000Z · A vs América W · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-06T00:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 5-3 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-07-25T03:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 3-1 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2025-01-18T03:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 1-3 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 2-4 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2024-04-29T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 2-1 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-08-21T03:10:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-3 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2023-01-09T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-1 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2022-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-1 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2022-01-17T23:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 3-3 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
- 2021-07-27T02:00:00.000Z · Toluca W 0-2 Tijuana W (Liga MX Femenil)
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 31 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 29 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca W win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.