· Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
Tomášov vs Gabčíkovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Tomášov and 1.56 for Gabčíkovo, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Gabčíkovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tomášov home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gabčíkovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gabčíkovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Tomášov and 1.56 for Gabčíkovo, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Tomášov
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dunajská Lužná · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-6 (L)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-07-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vrakuňa · 4-0 (W)
Gabčíkovo
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Trenčín II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veľké Ludince · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.