· Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Tomislav vs FK Sarajevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tomislav and 1.45 for FK Sarajevo, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FK Sarajevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tomislav home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Sarajevo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Sarajevo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Tomislav and 1.45 for FK Sarajevo, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Tomislav
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Posušje · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Kakanj · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
FK Sarajevo
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gornji Rahić · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloga Doboj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Velež · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.