· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Tomislav vs GOŠK Gabela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Tomislav and 2.08 for GOŠK Gabela, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives GOŠK Gabela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GOŠK Gabela win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tomislav home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GOŠK Gabela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Tomislav and 2.08 for GOŠK Gabela, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Tomislav
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-4 (L)
GOŠK Gabela
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travnik | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | Posušje | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Stupčanica Olovo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sloboda Tuzla | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | GOŠK Gabela | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Igman Konjic | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | TOŠK Tešanj | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Tomislav | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Radnik Hadžići | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Rudar Kakanj | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Čapljina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Vitez | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GOŠK Gabela win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.