· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Tomislav vs Posušje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Tomislav and 1.70 for Posušje, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Posušje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Posušje win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tomislav home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Posušje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Posušje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 24% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Tomislav and 1.70 for Posušje, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Tomislav
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-4 (L)
Posušje
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GOŠK Gabela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Hadžići · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - FBiH table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Posušje | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Travnik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Stupčanica Olovo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | Igman Konjic | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | GOŠK Gabela | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | TOŠK Tešanj | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitez | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Zvijezda Gradačac | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rudar Kakanj | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Čapljina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Tomislav | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Radnik Hadžići | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Posušje win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.