Tomislav vs Stupčanica Olovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Tomislav and 3.20 for Stupčanica Olovo, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Stupčanica Olovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stupčanica Olovo win

88.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.53 – 3.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tomislav home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stupčanica Olovo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tomislav win3%

Draw9%

Stupčanica Olovo win88%

Double chance 1X

12%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

97%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–313.2%
0–212.3%
0–410.5%
0–17.7%
1–36.9%

Recent form

Tomislav

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Posušje · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Kakanj · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)

Stupčanica Olovo

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TOŠK Tešanj · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Budućnost Banovići · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitez · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Tomislav 1-1 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2025-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Tomislav 1-2 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2025-03-23T14:30:00.000Z · Tomislav 2-0 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2024-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · Tomislav 0-1 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Tomislav 2-3 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2023-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Tomislav 0-1 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)
2023-04-08T14:30:00.000Z · Tomislav 0-1 Stupčanica Olovo (1st League - FBiH)

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stupčanica Olovo win, at 88.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.