Tomislav vs Zvijezda Gradačac Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Tomislav and 1.35 for Zvijezda Gradačac, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Zvijezda Gradačac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tomislav home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zvijezda Gradačac away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zvijezda Gradačac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Tomislav and 1.35 for Zvijezda Gradačac, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tomislav win31%

Draw27%

Zvijezda Gradačac win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–111.5%
1–09.4%
1–28.7%
0–08.5%

Recent form

Tomislav

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-4 (L)

Zvijezda Gradačac

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Travnik · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sloboda Tuzla · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	10	7	3	0	8	24
2	Travnik	10	7	1	2	8	22
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	6	2	2	14	20
4	Igman Konjic	10	5	4	1	5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	5	3	2	9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	3	4	3	5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	2	4	4	-8	10
11	Vitez	10	2	3	5	-6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	2	2	6	-2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
14	Čapljina	10	2	2	6	-10	8
15	Tomislav	10	2	2	6	-13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	2	1	7	-7	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.