Stadiumi Tomori · Analysis updated 12:58 UTC
Tomori Berat vs Butrinti Sarandë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tomori Berat and 1.20 for Butrinti Sarandë, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Tomori Berat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tomori Berat home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Butrinti Sarandë away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Tomori Berat
- 2025-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamurtari · 0-9 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Valbona · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriku · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maliqi · 5-1 (W)
Butrinti Sarandë
- 2026-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lushnja · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriku · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Turbina Cërrik · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Këlcyra · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-23T12:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 2-0 Butrinti Sarandë (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 3-1 Butrinti Sarandë (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2022-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 2-1 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
- 2021-11-24T12:30:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 0-0 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
- 2020-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 1-3 Butrinti Sarandë (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2019-10-27T12:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 3-2 Butrinti Sarandë (2nd Division - Group B)
- 2015-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 0-2 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
- 2014-12-17T12:30:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 2-0 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
- 2014-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 0-4 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
- 2014-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Tomori Berat 0-4 Butrinti Sarandë (1st Division)
2nd Division - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luftëtari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 51 |
| 2 | Oriku | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 51 |
| 3 | Tomori Berat | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Devolli | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 5 | Butrinti Sarandë | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 33 |
| 6 | Delvina | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Shkumbini Peqin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 20 |
| 8 | Maliqi | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -11 | 20 |
| 9 | Këlcyra | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 20 |
| 10 | Turbina Cërrik | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Memaliaj | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -64 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.