· Analysis updated 11:02 UTC
Tona vs Badalona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Tona and 1.41 for Badalona, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Badalona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Badalona win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tona home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Badalona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Badalona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Tona and 1.41 for Badalona, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
Tona
- 2026-10-18T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-3 (L)
Badalona
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vilanova | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Badalona win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.