· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Tonbridge Angels vs Biggleswade Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Tonbridge Angels and 1.72 for Biggleswade, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Biggleswade the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Biggleswade win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tonbridge Angels home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Biggleswade away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Biggleswade to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Tonbridge Angels and 1.72 for Biggleswade, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Tonbridge Angels
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelmsford City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidenhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-2 (L)
Biggleswade
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedford Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonbridge Angels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flackwell Heath · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:52.000Z · H vs Beaconsfield Town · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:52.000Z · A vs Northwood · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Biggleswade win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.