· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Tonbridge Angels vs Torquay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Tonbridge Angels and 1.74 for Torquay, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Torquay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Torquay win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tonbridge Angels home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torquay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Tonbridge Angels and 1.74 for Torquay, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.4% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.4% | 76.5% | 1.31 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 51.1% | 51.4% | 1.95 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 48.6% | 48.7% | 2.05 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 73.6% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.0% | 23.6% | 4.24 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tonbridge Angels
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelmsford City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidenhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-2 (L)
Torquay
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slough Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Stoneham · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Torquay win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.