Tondela vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tondela and 1.30 for Alverca, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Tondela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tondela win

46.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tondela home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alverca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tondela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Tondela and 1.30 for Alverca, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tondela win46%

Draw24%

Alverca win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.3%
1–08.6%
1–27.2%
2–07.2%

Recent form

Tondela

2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-21T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Academica · 0-2 (L)

Alverca

2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-13T20:45:00.000Z · Tondela 1-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
2025-09-12T19:15:00.000Z · Tondela 0-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
2025-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · Tondela 1-2 Alverca (Segunda Liga)
2025-01-12T20:30:00.000Z · Tondela 1-1 Alverca (Segunda Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tondela win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.