· Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Tondela vs São João Ver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Tondela and 0.75 for São João Ver, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Tondela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tondela home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
São João Ver away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 36% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Tondela and 0.75 for São João Ver, a combined 1.58 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.7%
- 1–017.1%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Tondela
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T12:00:00.000Z · Tondela 1-1 São João Ver (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.