· Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Tongeren vs Cappellen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Tongeren and 1.11 for Cappellen, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Tongeren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tongeren win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tongeren home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cappellen away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tongeren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Tongeren and 1.11 for Cappellen, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Tongeren
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hades · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tempo Overijse · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Termien · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cappellen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bocholt · 2-2 (D)
Cappellen
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sint-Truiden II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Royal Antwerp II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Termien · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilrijk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Rupel Boom · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | De Kempen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Racing Mechelen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hades | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wilrijk | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Eendracht Termien | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Bocholt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Rupel Boom | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Sint-Truiden II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Wellen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Rotselaar | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Diegem Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Nijlen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | Tongeren | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tongeren win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.