Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino · Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Torino vs AC Milan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Torino and 1.50 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives AC Milan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AC Milan win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torino home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AC Milan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AC Milan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 21% / 26% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Torino and 1.50 for AC Milan, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.5% vs market 46.7%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 73.8% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 21.2% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 52.5% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.3% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Torino
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 0-1 (L)
AC Milan
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lecce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AC Milan win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.