Stadio Olimpico di Torino · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Torino vs Venezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Torino and 1.35 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Torino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Torino home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Venezia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Torino and 1.35 for Venezia, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Torino
- 2026-10-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Udinese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
Venezia
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Lazio | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Como | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Torino | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Monza | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.