Stadion Sriwedari · Analysis updated 03:11 UTC
Tornado Pekanbaru vs Persipal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.02 expected goals for Tornado Pekanbaru and 0.87 for Persipal, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Tornado Pekanbaru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tornado Pekanbaru win
80.1% probability
Expected goals
3.02 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tornado Pekanbaru home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Persipal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tornado Pekanbaru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.02 goals for Tornado Pekanbaru and 0.87 for Persipal, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–07.1%
Recent form
Tornado Pekanbaru
- 2026-09-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persipura Jayapura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Dejan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persela Lamongan · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIS Semarang · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Deltras · 2-0 (W)
Persipal
- 2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Barito Putera · 3-8 (L)
- 2026-04-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persipura Jayapura · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persela Lamongan · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Deltras · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSS Sleman · 0-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persela Lamongan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Deltras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | PSMS Medan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | PSPS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Persikad Depok FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | RANS Nusantara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Semen Padang | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | PSGC Ciamis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Persipura Jayapura | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Persis Solo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Barito Putera | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dejan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sumsel United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Persiku Kudus | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tornado Pekanbaru win, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.