BMO Field · Referee Ricardo Fierro, USA · Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Toronto FC and 2.21 for FC Cincinnati, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives FC Cincinnati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
FC Cincinnati or Draw
60.2% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.3%
Why the model likes this
Toronto FC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cincinnati to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 40% / 20% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Toronto FC and 2.21 for FC Cincinnati, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Toronto FC
- 2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 0-0 (D)
FC Cincinnati
- 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T23:45:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-25T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-1 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-03-08T23:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-0 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-14T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-09T00:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-2 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-25T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 3-4 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-02-25T19:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-0 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 2-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-06-21T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-05-04T23:30:00.000Z · Toronto FC 0-2 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-04-30T19:00:00.000Z · Toronto FC 1-2 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.